HBR IdeaCastAre Great Leaders Truly Great—or Just Lucky?
Sep 1, 2026 · 25 min
How much does a leader actually matter to an organization’s success? We tend to credit CEOs, founders, and other powerful figures with shaping the institutions they lead, but historian Jared Diamond argues that we often underestimate the role of timing, circumstance, industry, and plain luck. Diamond explains his “Hamlet test,” which asks whether someone else could have achieved the same outcome o…